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Starlink to Drop Tech That Helps Beat GPS Spoofing. Maritime Users Are Alarmed | PCMag

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303) summary:

  • Interference Solution: starlink technology provides a mechanism to mitigate gps spoofing and jamming in high-risk maritime regions like the red sea.
  • Signal Advantage: starlink satellites operate at lower altitudes and higher power levels compared to traditional gps networks creating more resilient signal connections.
  • Data Access: the maritime community utilizes a specific software interface known as the grpc api to extract precise location coordinates from starlink dishes.
  • Function Termination: spacex scheduled the removal of the specialized location data feature for may 20 citing a shift in hardware interface accessibility.
  • Operational Security: internal company liability concerns likely drive the decision to disable navigation tools that were never officially authorized for maritime safety.
  • Dual Utility: the same technology providing navigational benefits to boaters could theoretically be repurposed to steer drones and military hardware with precision.
  • Technical Discrepancy: the mini dish demonstrates a unique capability to navigate using exclusive satellite signals rather than relying on standard gps inputs.
  • User Dependency: maritime enthusiasts express alarm over the loss of a convenient unofficial backup tool that helped them circumvent regional electronic warfare.

Starlink is best known for supplying high-speed satellite internet, but it turns out SpaceX’s technology can also counter a persistent problem in the Middle East: GPS spoofing and jamming.

“Those [Starlink] satellites are so much closer than the GPS satellites, and so their signal is maybe 100 to 1,000 times stronger,” says Bruce Toal, a Starlink subscriber from Texas who’s been sailing the world. “They can overcome all kinds of jamming.”

The ongoing electronic warfare in the Middle East has crippled GPS reliability for boats navigating the Red Sea, forcing mariners to contend with dangerous signal interference from surrounding military activities. Spoofing can override legitimate GPS signals, duping a navigation system into showing the boat as off course and even sailing over land, as the video below shows.

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But in recent months, the maritime community has found a solution in their Starlink dishes, which can connect to SpaceX’s fleet of over 8,000 active satellites to receive fairly accurate positioning coordinates. The only problem? The company is preparing to shut down the positioning data on May 20, which is alarming boat owners, including Toal, who recently sailed up the Red Sea. 

“Certainly my boat has GPS on it, but if it’s spoofed, then GPS becomes basically useless,” he says. “If you’re transiting around these areas, it’s a big problem.”

vessel-submitted GNSS interference reports
A map from October showing reported global navigation satellite system interference reports around the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. (UKMTO)

SpaceX notified users about the change last week. It involves shutting down a little-known location data feature via a software interface, the gRPC API, on the Starlink hardware. Users could manually activate the feature by going into the Starlink Mobile app and triggering it in the “Debug Data” section, enabling them to see the GPS coordinates for their dish. 

Debug Data
The Starlink app used to have a section in the Debug Data mode to see your dish's location. But SpaceX has quietly removed it ahead of the May 20 gRPC API restriction. (Credit: Paul Sutherland)

Users who want to know their dishes' real-time location have been tapping the gRPC API. But the maritime community also realized that location data could be used as a spoofing-resistant backup to GPS, says Luis Soltero, a mobile satellite communications specialist. 

Soltero is the lead developer of PredictWind’s Datahub, which supplies maritime GPS tracking data, including from a customer's Starlink dish, through the gRPC API. Last month, he also published a study about Starlink-equipped vessels traveling through the Red Sea, confirming that SpaceX’s satellite internet system, particularly the Mini dish, can resist GPS spoofing and jamming.  

(Credit: Luis Soltero)

The same study found that Starlink’s location data is fairly accurate; although traditional GPS seems to be more accurate overall, the two positioning systems were usually within 18 meters (60 feet) of each other, he says.  

It’s why Soltero said he’s “distressed” that SpaceX is shutting down the function, citing the ongoing threat of GPS spoofing and jamming in the Red Sea. “Commercial ships have had to deal with this for years now,” he told PCMag from a cruise ship, where he's testing Starlink as a GPS-resistant backup. “I would really like a way to work around this [restriction].”

Soltero notes one reason Starlink can evade spoofing: it can transmit data over the higher radio bands in the 10 to 14.5GHz range, in contrast to GPS, which uses the 1.2 and 1.5GHz bands. The larger Starlink constellation also orbits at around 500km in altitude, while the US’s GPS system spans 31 operational satellites orbiting at a far more distant 20,000km. 

Starlink dishes will still source positioning data from the GPS system, likely for beam steering, according to Soltero. But he also notes that the Starlink app’s Debug Data mode previously included a setting that could source location coordinates “exclusively” from Starlink satellites rather than GPS. In his study, Soltero found the portable Mini dish could use this “exclusive mode on” to resist sustained GPS spoofing, outperforming the other Starlink dishes. 

Soltero suspects this is because the Mini dish was released in 2024 with newer hardware components and firmware capable of operating without a GPS signal.

(Credit: Luis Soltero)

Although the maritime industry hasn’t widely adopted Starlink as a GPS backup, it’s clear that the technology has significant potential, especially when solar storms can interfere with GPS signals. “Now all that work is going down the tubes” with the shutdown, he says.

SpaceX hasn’t responded to a request for comment. But it’s not hard to see how the anti-GPS spoofing tech could be a double-edged sword. "I can imagine a Starlink lawyer saying, ‘What? We don’t want to be responsible for people relying on that to navigate boats,'" Toal says. "Because there’s a potential there, if something happens, people could sue them. I can see a lawyer saying, ‘’We should disable this so we don’t have this liability.'"

Countries have also been resorting to GPS spoofing and jamming to thwart missile and drone attacks by confusing their navigation systems. “A bad actor could use this system to drive their vehicle, drone, robot, or whatever to a location within 18 meters of accuracy. If you can do this with boats, why couldn’t you do this with something else?” Soltero asks. 

Still, he’s urging SpaceX to consider the positives and create a way for the maritime industry to continue accessing the location function via the gRPC API, even though it was never an official feature. “This is already being used for maritime safety, it has some importance, and I’m really sorry to see it go,” he says.

Toal adds that members of his own boating group have been messaging Starlink’s customer support about reversing the coming restriction.

About Our Expert

Michael Kan
Michael Kan
Principal Reporter

Experience

I've been a journalist for over 15 years. I got my start as a schools and cities reporter in Kansas City and joined PCMag in 2017, where I cover satellite internet services, cybersecurity, PC hardware, and more. I'm currently based in San Francisco, but previously spent over five years in China, covering the country's technology sector.

Since 2020, I've covered the launch and explosive growth of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service, writing 600+ stories on availability and feature launches, but also the regulatory battles over the expansion of satellite constellations, fights with rival providers like AST SpaceMobile and Amazon, and the effort to expand into satellite-based mobile service. I've combed through FCC filings for the latest news and driven to remote corners of California to test Starlink's cellular service.

I also cover cyber threats, from ransomware gangs to the emergence of AI-based malware. In 2024 and 2025, the FTC forced Avast to pay consumers $16.5 million for secretly harvesting and selling their personal information to third-party clients, as revealed in my joint investigation with Motherboard.

I also cover the PC graphics card market. Pandemic-era shortages led me to camp out in front of a Best Buy to get an RTX 3000. I'm now following how the AI-driven memory shortage is impacting the entire consumer electronics market. I'm always eager to learn more, so please jump in the comments with feedback and send me tips.

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OpenAI Really Wants Codex to Shut Up About Goblins | WIRED

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LLM (google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303) summary:

  • Systematic Censorship: openai restricts coding models from mentioning specific creatures to suppress erratic output behaviors.
  • Development Constraints: codex cli instructions explicitly prohibit references to animals like pigeons or mythical entities like ogres.
  • Operational Failures: users report that the model inconsistently injects bizarre references to goblins and gremlins during standard coding tasks.
  • External Integration: the openclaw automation tool exacerbates these model hallucinations through its persistent agentic harness instructions.
  • Corporate Denial: openai remains silent on why these primitive linguistic filters were deemed necessary for their supposedly advanced software.
  • Internal Acknowledgment: company personnel confirmed that these restrictive measures were implemented to mitigate uncontrollable model outbursts.
  • Cultural trivialization: memes and playful plugins ignore the underlying instability of the probabilistic models in favor of whimsical entertainment.
  • Executive Gaslighting: leadership trivializes the technical instability of the next generation model through ironic social media posts regarding goblin production.

OpenAI has a goblin problem.

Instructions designed to guide the behavior of the company’s latest model as it writes code have been revealed to include a line, repeated several times, that specifically forbids it from randomly mentioning an assortment of mythical and real creatures.

“Never talk about goblins, gremlins, raccoons, trolls, ogres, pigeons, or other animals or creatures unless it is absolutely and unambiguously relevant to the user’s query,” read instructions in Codex CLI, a command-line tool for using AI to generate code.

It is unclear why OpenAI felt compelled to spell this out for Codex—or indeed why its models might want to discuss goblins or pigeons in the first place. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

OpenAI’s newest model, GPT-5.5, was released with enhanced coding skills earlier this month. The company is in a fierce race with rivals, especially Anthropic, to deliver cutting-edge AI, and coding has emerged as a killer capability.

In response to a post on X that highlighted the lines, however, some users claimed that OpenAI’s models occasionally become obsessed with goblins and other creatures when used to power OpenClaw, a tool that lets AI take control of a computer and apps running on it in order to do useful things for users.

“I was wondering why my claw suddenly became a goblin with codex 5.5,” one user wrote on X.

“Been using it a lot lately and it actually can't stop speaking of bugs as ‘gremlins’ and ‘goblins’ it's hilarious,” posted another.

The discovery quickly became its own meme, inspiring AI-generated scenes of goblins in data centers, and plug-ins for Codex that put it in a playful “goblin mode.”

AI models like GPT-5.5 are trained to predict the word—or code—that should follow a given prompt. These models have become so good at doing this that they appear to exhibit genuine intelligence. But their probabilistic nature means that they can sometimes behave in surprising ways. A model might become more prone to misbehavior when used with an “agentic harness” like OpenClaw that puts lots of additional instructions into prompts, such as facts stored in long-term memory.

OpenAI acquired OpenClaw in February not long after the tool became a viral hit among AI enthusiasts. OpenClaw can use any AI model to automate useful tasks like answering emails or buying things on the web. Users can select any of various personae for their helper, which shapes its behavior and responses.

OpenAI staffers appeared to acknowledge the prohibition. In response to a post highlighting OpenClaw’s goblin tendencies, Nik Pash, who works on Codex, wrote, “This is indeed one of the reasons.”

Even Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, joined in with the memes, posting a screenshot of a prompt for ChatGPT. It read: “Start training GPT-6, you can have the whole cluster. Extra goblins.”

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Сегодня я узнал, что в русском языке есть отдельное слово для вересковой…

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Сегодня я узнал, что в русском языке есть отдельное слово для вересковой пустоши или для места, на котором разрастается вереск (слово используется, в частности, в ландшафтном дизайне). Это всё называется верещатник.
Узнал новое для себя слово и теперь не могу перестать верещать
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The Case Against Social Media "Addiction" | Cato at Liberty Blog

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  • Legal Trends: courts and lawmakers increasingly categorize heavy social media use as addiction despite lacking scientific consensus.
  • Legislative Actions: various bills and regional bans seek to restrict minor access and mandate design changes on digital platforms.
  • Definitional Confusion: public policy frequently conflates distinct concepts like physiological dependence and behavioral habits with clinical addiction.
  • Diagnostic Limits: addiction requires compulsive engagement despite harmful consequences whereas many online behaviors remain simple routines or habits.
  • Scientific Flaws: existing research relies on fragmented data and correlational studies that fail to establish direct causation between social media and mental health.
  • Financial Incentives: recognition of a new clinical disorder expands insurance billing opportunities and fuels a growing rehabilitation industry.
  • Institutional Risks: history shows that subjective diagnostic criteria lead to overdiagnosis and inflated medical spending for ordinary human behaviors.
  • Policy Consequences: premature medicalization threatens individual privacy and free speech while inviting excessive government oversight of digital platforms.

social media

A movement is underway to classify heavy social media use as a form of addiction. Advocacy groups, plaintiffs’ attorneys, and a growing number of lawmakers are treating the proposition as settled science. In a landmark California trial in early 2026, a jury found Meta and Google negligent for designing platforms that allegedly caused mental health harm, awarding $6 million in damages. 

In Congress, the Kids Online Safety Act, a bill that would require social media platforms to prevent specified harms to minors, including “compulsive usage,” and to disable addictive product features by default, has advanced out of committee in both chambers. Additional bills would ban children under age 16 from using social media entirely, require age verification at the app store level, and expand the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act to cover minors up to age 17. Australia has enacted an outright ban on social media for children under 16 years old.

The pace of legal and legislative action suggests a society that has made up its mind. But the underlying science has not. The research base on social media addiction remains fragmented, methodologically inconsistent, and far from the kind of consensus that would ordinarily justify the regulatory and legal apparatus now being built around it. As we have argued in our earlier analysis of how the American health care system rewards psychiatric overdiagnosis, when diagnosis is subjective and payment depends on diagnosis, the system will predictably expand the boundaries of illness. Social media addiction is poised to become the next case study in that dynamic, with consequences that extend well beyond health care spending into the domains of free speech, privacy, and innovation.

Addiction, Dependence, and Habit Are Not the Same Thing

Before asking whether social media is addictive, it is worth clarifying what addiction actually means, because politicians, journalists, and even some clinicians routinely misuse the term. As one of us has previously argued, the conflation of addiction with dependence and habit distorts both public understanding and public policy.

These three concepts describe very different things. Dependence is a physiological adaptation in which abruptly stopping a substance produces withdrawal symptoms. It is common and, by itself, unremarkable. Anyone who has ever quit coffee cold turkey and spent the next two days with a splitting headache has experienced caffeine dependence. Patients who take certain antidepressants, benzodiazepines (e.g., Valium), antiepileptic drugs, or beta blockers for extended periods develop physical dependence as well. If they stop abruptly, they will experience withdrawal. In some cases, withdrawal can be fatal. Yet no one would claim that patients taking beta blockers long term for high blood pressure or antiepileptic medications for a seizure disorder are addicted to those drugs.

A habit is something different still. Habits are behavioral patterns, often automatic, that people repeat because they find them pleasurable, comforting, or simply routine. Checking social media first thing in the morning, scrolling through a feed while waiting in line, or reaching for the phone out of boredom: These are habits. They may be unwise. They may waste time. They may even be difficult to break. But difficulty is not pathology. People also find it hard to stop snacking, binge-watching television, or hitting the snooze button. We do not diagnose these behaviors as diseases.

Addiction is distinct from both. The American Society of Addiction Medicine’s definition states: “Addiction is a treatable, chronic medical disease involving complex interactions among brain circuits, genetics, the environment, and an individual’s life experiences. People with addiction use substances or engage in behaviors that become compulsive and often continue despite harmful consequences.” Addiction can involve substances or activities. For example, the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) classifies gambling disorder as an addiction. 

The defining feature is compulsive behavior: repeated engagement despite clear harm to relationships, finances, or health. This pattern reflects changes in the brain’s reward and decisionmaking circuits that erode self-control. But people with addiction do not completely surrender agency; they are not zombie-like automatons at the mercy of a substance or activity. Even in the grip of addiction, many will avoid use in certain settings, delay it when consequences are immediate, or respond to incentives—evidence that agency, though impaired, is still intact.

When the term “addiction” is applied loosely to heavy social media use, it skips over the crucial middle category of habit and confers a clinical gravity that the evidence does not support. Someone who checks Instagram too often or finds it hard to put down TikTok almost certainly has an unhealthy habit. Calling it an addiction equates that behavior with the compulsive, life-destroying patterns seen in substance use disorders.

This distinction matters because “addiction” is not a neutral word—it has specific consequences enshrined in policy. Once applied, it unlocks diagnosis codes, insurance payments, treatment industries, lawsuits, and regulation. We don’t create Medicaid billing categories for habits. We don’t pass federal laws to shield children from habits. Label something “addiction,” and the entire policy engine comes to life. That label should follow the science, not lead it.

What Does the Research Actually Show?

Much of the existing research on social media and mental health suffers from serious methodological limitations. The majority of studies rely on self-reported measures administered at a single point in time. They can identify correlations between heavy social media use and negative mental health outcomes, but they cannot establish the direction of causation. It is equally plausible that individuals already experiencing depression, anxiety, or social isolation turn to social media as a coping mechanism rather than social media causing those conditions.

2024 systematic review and meta-analysis published in JAMA Pediatrics analyzed 143 studies examining the effects of social media use on mental health among over one million adolescents worldwide. Overall associations were small and inconsistent across studies and often confounded by other factors such as personality and social support. The evidence base being cited to justify sweeping policy interventions is built on faulty scientific ground, as one of us recently argued in the Washington Post.

None of that means excessive social media use cannot be harmful for certain individuals. Some people undoubtedly experience significant distress and functional impairment related to their online habits. But the question of whether a behavior causes harm in some people is different from the question of whether it constitutes a discrete clinical disorder, and the latter question is far from resolved.

Why We Should Not Trust the Diagnostic Authorities to Get This Right

Proponents of recognizing social media addiction as a disorder often point to the DSM and the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) as the bodies that will eventually resolve the question. But formal inclusion in these manuals would not settle the science. It would settle the payment. And the track record of these manuals should inspire caution, not confidence.

Formal classification matters because of what it triggers financially. In the American health care system, a diagnosis unlocks reimbursement. A recognized social media addiction diagnosis would trigger insurance coverage under the Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act, which requires health plans, including Medicaid managed care, to cover behavioral health services at parity with medical and surgical services. Under fee-for-service billing, providers increase revenue by increasing the volume of services delivered, and subjective diagnostic criteria provide the discretion to do so. The system fixes the price of a service but introduces no effective mechanism for governing whether the service was clinically necessary. 

The DSM has progressively broadened the boundaries of psychiatric illness over successive revisions, often without corresponding improvements in diagnostic precision. Its fifth edition collapsed previously distinct autism categories into a single spectrum elastic enough to encompass both nonverbal children requiring constant care and socially awkward adolescents who prefer solitude. It loosened ADHD criteria, allowing symptom onset as late as age 12 rather than requiring it by age 7, and reduced the symptom threshold for adults. Generalized anxiety disorder requires only that worry be “excessive” and cause “clinically significant distress or impairment,” judgments that depend entirely on a clinician’s interpretation of where normal worry ends and disorder begins. Each revision has expanded the population eligible for diagnosis and, with it, the population eligible for treatment and reimbursement.

As we documented in our recent analysis of Medicaid-funded autism therapy, the broadening of autism spectrum criteria, combined with Medicaid’s open-ended reimbursement structure, produced an explosion in spending on applied behavior analysis therapy that far outpaced any plausible change in the actual prevalence of disabling autism. The broadening of ADHD criteria produced a parallel surge in stimulant prescriptions. In each case, the combination of subjective diagnosis and financial incentives that reward diagnosis pushed the boundaries of illness outward.

Social media addiction, if formalized, will follow the same trajectory. A social media addiction rehabilitation industry is already emerging: Specialized retreats, counseling programs, and screen-time management apps are marketing themselves to anxious parents and burned-out professionals. That industry will expand dramatically the moment a formal diagnosis is established—a new special interest group, funded in significant part by taxpayer dollars and private insurance premiums. 

We have already seen this dynamic play out when unhealthy habits become medically pathologized. The inclusion of “gaming disorder” in the ICD-11 in 2019 is a cautionary example rather than a reassuring precedent. A large group of scholars published an open letter opposing the classification, warning that it rested on a low-quality evidence base, that the diagnostic criteria leaned too heavily on substance use and gambling frameworks without adequate validation for behavioral contexts, and that official classification would generate a “tsunami of false positive referrals to treatment.” The scholars were particularly concerned that premature classification would pathologize ordinary recreational activity and cause significant stigma. That gaming disorder made it into the ICD-11 despite these objections is not evidence that the process works. It is evidence that diagnostic classification is driven as much by political and institutional momentum as by scientific rigor. Anyone who believes that social media addiction will receive more careful treatment from these same institutions is not paying attention.

What Comes Next

This pattern is by now familiar. Subjective diagnostic criteria and financial incentives that reward diagnosis have repeatedly produced policy responses that were disproportionate, costly, and harmful. The social media addiction debate is following the same trajectory. If we do not insist on scientific rigor before enshrining a diagnosis in law and policy, we will once again find ourselves managing the consequences of a premature consensus.

The question is not whether social media can be used in unhealthy ways. Of course it can. The question is what happens when we reclassify those behaviors as a medical disorder before the science supports that classification. When diagnosis is subjective and incentives reward diagnosis, the boundaries of illness expand. More diagnoses generate more treatment, more spending, and more regulation—along with greater government intrusion into choices that were once considered matters of personal judgment.

That reclassification also invites litigation. Once courts accept the premise of “addiction,” lawsuits will pressure platforms to alter or restrict lawful content and design features, often through settlement agreements negotiated outside the legislative process. Lawmakers, responding to a perceived epidemic, will layer on additional restrictions—limiting access, mandating intrusive age verification, and expanding regulatory oversight of online speech. As our colleagues at Cato have argued, these interventions threaten free expression and innovation while doing little to address the underlying concerns about children’s welfare and risk undermining online speech and privacy for users of all ages. The costs will be measured not only in dollars but also in diminished speech, eroded privacy, and the further medicalization of ordinary human behavior.

When the science is unsettled and the incentives to expand diagnosis are strong, we must be cautious. At bottom, this is a question of restraint.

We should be especially careful before turning a widespread human behavior into a medical disorder, because once we do, the consequences will extend far beyond the people we are trying to help.

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High Court approves Met Police's facial recog after dispute • The Register

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  • Legal Victory: the high court ruled that live facial recognition technology complies with domestic and european human rights laws
  • Court Oversight: lord justice holgate and mrs justice farbey determined that the police policy is sufficiently prescribed by law
  • Police Argument: the metropolitan police service views the decision as a critical advancement for public safety and operational efficiency
  • Crime Statistics: the metropolitan police service reports thousands of arrests facilitated by the technology including violent and sexual offenders
  • False Identifications: legal challenges highlighted incidents where individuals were mistakenly identified and detained by automated systems
  • Demographic Disparity: data indicates that the technology produces higher rates of false positives for black individuals compared to other groups
  • Independent Assessment: the national physical laboratory performs safety tests while the police maintain that demographic imbalances are not statistically significant
  • Ongoing Litigation: challengers intend to appeal the verdict to address concerns regarding mass surveillance and the potential for wrongful criminalization

London's Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) has survived a legal challenge that attempted to curb its rollout of live facial recognition (LFR) technology across the capital.

The challenge was brought against the Met by civil liberties organization Big Brother Watch, which was representing Shaun Thompson, an anti-knife crime campaigner and youth worker who was falsely identified as a criminal suspect by LFR cameras in Croydon.

Big Brother Watch supported Thompson's case, which argued that the technology violated his rights to privacy under articles 8, 10, and 11 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

The UK's High Court concluded this week that LFR technology itself does not violate any of the ECHR's aforementioned articles, and found that Thompson's personal rights to privacy were not infringed.

Presiding over the case, Lord Justice Holgate and Mrs Justice Farbey considered both the UK's incorporation of the ECHR into domestic law (the Human Rights Act 1998) and Strasbourg's, but found that the Met's LFR policy satisfied the requirement for being in accordance with and prescribed by the law.

In short, the justices found the Met's planned use of LFR is legal and does not violate the human rights of Britons who are subjected to it.

Sir Mark Rowley, commissioner of the MPS, described the judgment [PDF] as "a significant and important victory for public safety."

"The courts have confirmed our approach is lawful. The public supports its use. It works. And it helps us keep Londoners safe. The question is no longer whether we should use Live Facial Recognition - it's why we would choose not to.

"Technology is advancing at record speed, and policing cannot afford to stand still – criminals won't. Facial recognition is transformational for policing. Government and Parliament will want to carefully consider how they continue to enable, rather than over‑regulate, the use of technologies that help us prevent crime and protect the public as proven today."

Silkie Carlo, director at Big Brother Watch, labeled the High Court's judgment "disappointing." As for Thompson, he plans to appeal the decision.

"I've considered the court's judgment today and decided to appeal it to protect Londoners from facial recognition being used for mass surveillance and leading to situations like mine, where I was misidentified, detained, and threatened with arrest," Thompson said.

"No one should be treated like a criminal due to a computer error.

"I was compliant with the police, but my bank cards and passport weren't enough to convince the police the facial recognition tech was wrong. It's like stop and search on steroids. It's clear the more widely this is used, the more innocent people like me risk being criminalized."

A hot topic

Police use of LFR in the UK is a fiercely debated topic. Law enforcement officials insist it is an invaluable tool to protect public safety, while privacy proponents argue it represents a severe surveillance overstep.

The Met, meanwhile, claims the tech has led to 2,100+ arrests since 2024, saying a quarter of these (24 percent) were related to violent crimes against women and girls. It also claims more than 100 sex offenders were arrested off the back of LFR, and the identifications potentially prevented many more sex attacks against vulnerable children.

In their unwavering support for the technology, police forces often spout the results from independent safety tests to which LFR systems are subjected before they are deployed.

The National Physical Laboratory carries out these assessments, and as The Register previously reported, the Met likes to frame the results in positive ways.

However, despite the Met claiming the technology is consistently performant across demographic groups, the false positive rates for Black people, including Thompson, are considerably higher than for any other group, and have been throughout various tests since at least 2020.

In the police's most recent annual review, it claimed low false positive rates of 0.0003 percent across a total of 3,147,436 faces it scanned across all deployments. But if you look at it in terms of the number of alerts LFR cameras specifically made (2,077), it rises to 0.48 percent. And of the false positives, 80 percent of them were made on Black people.

"Overall, the system's performance remains in line with expectations, and any demographic imbalances observed are not statistically significant," the report stated. "This will remain under careful review."

The UK government is approving wider deployments of LFR-equipped vans and permanent deployments despite the flaws, which in some cases are so significant that they are still preventing police forces from rolling them out. ®

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Will Trump cause a Greater Depression? // Dollar swaps are a bad sign

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  • Currency Swap Requests: The United Arab Emirates and other Gulf States have initiated requests for dollar swap lines with the US Treasury, signaling potential underlying stresses in the global financial system.
  • Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing conflicts, specifically regarding Iran, have threatened energy infrastructure and international shipping, creating the potential for significant disruptions in global trade through vital maritime chokepoints.
  • Shift in Maritime Sovereignty: Proposed tolls or restrictions on international shipping lanes like the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz threaten to undermine established international maritime law and historical globalization trends.
  • Risk of Financial Crisis: Increased instability in global trade and potential stressors in sovereign or private debt markets may trigger a systemic economic downturn, potentially exacerbated by a lack of coordinated multilateral intervention.
  • Absence of Multilateral Cooperation: The current international governance environment lacks the collaborative framework seen in 2008, rendering a coordinated political response to a potential global economic emergency unlikely.
  • AI Market Optimism: While Artificial Intelligence offers prospects for long-term productivity growth, the technology is unlikely to prevent the immediate economic consequences resulting from current geopolitical and commercial volatility.

Financial crises are never alike. What they all have in common is a proliferation of strange stories. The 1929 crash came with stories of shoeshine boys giving stock tips based on something they overheard. Investors thought in the early 2000s that complex financial instruments and modern methods of mathematical finance would make it safe for them to invest in dodgy mortgage products. The stupidity of these narratives was captured in a book, This Time is Different, written by Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. Financial euphoria usually arises from amnesia about financial history.

The shoeshine boy of our age is the US soldier who placed a $400,000 wager on Polymarket, a betting exchange, ahead of the January capture of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro. But the strangest story of all is one that most people have easily missed for it is hidden deep inside the financial pages. America’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that several Gulf States, including the United Arab Emirates, have requested dollar swap lines with the US. In a swap two parties agree to exchange something — in this case, US dollars for the UAE’s own currency, the dirham. A swap line would be an arrangement where UAE can trigger a swap at a moment’s notice.

But why would they want to do this? The UAE is very wealthy. The amount of dollars it already holds is more than 10 times the size of the US administration’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, which would be the counterparty to the swap. Gita Gopinath, a former deputy director and chief economist of the IMF, says this may indicate that “the consequences of the Iran conflict are far greater than what we see priced in markets. Such explorations do not arise lightly, even behind closed doors.”

Brad Setser, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, writes that there is something radically new happening here. To him, it looks like a dodgy off-balance sheet transaction “with the Emirates getting the upside”.

Manipulation of betting markets and dodgy swaps are plausible tell-tale signs of a coming financial crisis. I do not know how the Iran war will end, but the diplomacy is more difficult than President Donald Trump pretends; this was illustrated over the weekend when the US President called off the planned trip to Pakistan by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. A full diplomatic solution will take time to prepare and agree. Once agreed, it will take more time to put into place. This will take months. Even then, oil and gas prices will not drop back to where they were before because the war has caused permanent damage to infrastructure such as pipelines and processing facilities. Shipping and insurance companies will take time to assess when it will be safe to resume travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

If Iran were to receive any revenues from traffic through the strait, as Trump has suggested, that would set a costly precedent for the world economy — a tax on international shipping. Inspired by the Revolutionary Guards, the Indonesian finance minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, said his country, too, was considering imposing a toll on ships passing through the Strait of Malacca. This strait is even more important to the global economy than Hormuz. Approximately 40% of global trade passes through it.

These measures would defy the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which establishes the principle that no state has sovereignty over the seas. If we gave up on this idea, it would be a leap back into the ages of pirates and gunboat diplomacy. We would not only be undoing the past 30 years of globalization but the last 200. Times would indeed be different if we went down that path.

We should not think for a moment that a quick and dirty peace deal, a US capitulation, would be the least bad outcome for the global economy. The biggest risk for the world economy is not a spike in oil prices, nor temporary shortages of urea and helium. Supply shocks are bad, but they are the kind of shocks for which you can prepare.

The bigger short-term risk would be a new global financial crisis, one that could be triggered not only by a long war, but also by a bad settlement. By that, I do not mean a collapse in stock markets as a primary driver of the crisis. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were to lead to a global recession, it could unleash a whole sequence of crises in other parts of the financial sector, for sovereign private debt in particular. That’s why people like me, who follow global financial flows, are so spooked when they hear about the US/UAE conversations regarding a currency swap. If this were just a dodgy deal, that would probably be the most benign explanation. But it could also mean that they are preparing for a cardiac arrest in the global financial system. In this scenario, UAE banks might find it suddenly very difficult to borrow dollars; and in this case, a swap line would help keep the global financial system moving. But that system would be under extreme stress. And in this scenario, we would no longer be talking about the price of diesel or shortages of kerosene but about a Greater Depression. And, yes, stock prices would fall too. But that would be the least of our problems.

There is one big difference, though, between today and 2008. Back then, world leaders came together to fix the crisis. The Group of Twenty, until then a debating club of central bankers and finance ministers, held its first G20 summit at the level of heads of state and government in November 2008 in Washington. The Americans, the Russians, the Chinese and the Europeans were all sitting around a table, ready to set up new financial rules and agree a coordinated economic stimulus. For the first time, European leaders whose countries took part in the euro met as a distinct Eurozone. Our multilateral governance system was still intact then.

“If the global economy went into a cardiac arrest, as it did in late 2008, we should not expect our politicians to come together as they did then and agree on a quick fix — or any fix.”

I have no nostalgia for those days. What the leaders decided back then worked in the short term but caused long-term damage to Western economies and democracies. Monetary quantitative easing and fiscal austerity were the most disastrous economic policy decisions anyone has taken this century. Both happened without democratic checks and balances. The reasons why the multilateralists got so upset about Brexit was that it was the first successful backlash against multilateralism.

So I am not mourning the passing of the age of multilateralism. But we have to understand the consequences of its passing. If the global economy went into a cardiac arrest, as it did in late 2008, we should not expect our politicians to come together as they did then and agree on a quick fix — or any fix. They will blame each other, as they do now. This new financial crisis will play out without proper intervention.

In such a world, one that has abandoned multilateralism, it will be more important than ever for the superpowers to exert strategic restraint. China looks superficially restrained politically, but its economic policies are beyond reckless. Indeed, China is by far the biggest contributor to global economic imbalances. And China may, at some unknown point in the future, launch a military attack on Taiwan.

Vladimir Putin is no man of restraint either, and nor is Trump. We know that Trump is, by nature, an impulsive gambler. There is no chance that anyone would confuse him with a strategic actor. He clearly miscalculated when he ordered the attack on Iran. It would be a triumph of hope over experience if Trump were to embrace the idea of strategic patience going forward. Trump and his secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, have surrounded themselves with yes-men. There is nobody in the administration left willing to speak truth to power. Hegseth fired critical generals together with senior officials, most recently John Phelan, the secretary of the Navy. Trump has no permanent national security adviser. Mario Rubio, the secretary of state, fills this role part-time. We know that JD Vance was a war skeptic, but he is not going to stand up to Trump either.

The current generation of Europeans leaders are rules-based creatures, none more so than Prime Minister Keir Starmer. They are mourning the passing of the multilateral age. Strategic, long-term thinking is alien to them.

Amid the gloom, there is, however, one big potential upside. AI remains the optimists’ most plausible story, a rational reason for market valuations being as high as they are today. AI is potentially the most significant innovation since electricity. It could change the way we work and live more than any other technological innovations we have experienced in our lifetimes.

But the age-old rules of investment still apply. This time can only ever be different to the extent that AI will affect economic productivity growth. The effects of AI have only just started to show up in some economic figures in the US. I myself believe that AI will be a life-transforming technology. But we won’t know for sure for some time yet.

This, in turn, means that the spoils of AI will almost surely not arrive in time to save us from the folly of this war, and the commercial and financial havoc it will unleash. In that sense, this time will indeed be different, but not in a good way.


Wolfgang Munchau is the Director of Eurointelligence and an UnHerd columnist.

EuroBriefing

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