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The Epstein cliffhanger - UnHerd

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A friend builds hotels. He explained that his business is all about sex. I told him “just like mine”. The movie biz, from its inception, offered nubility on screen to the masses, and in bed to the powerful. That’s just the way it was, a Regency Era of industrial promiscuity. The women (and the boys) came to bring their pigs to market, and the uses they made of their bodies were nobody’s business — save their own and that of the suits who would bed them. Hollywood controlled the press; which, just as today, would speak no ill of those who fed them. 

Were women being exploited by the Suits? Everyone was. The agents were lying both to their clients and to the Studios; nobody knew what a “manager” did. Very few artists got anything like a fair count, and the awards were generally for sale, as were the results of audience surveys. 

Many a studio Head (I will name no names) rose to the gig through training as a pimp. Those who could offer sweet young things to The Money from Back East became The Power. (See Marilyn Monroe, herself, infamously enlisted to extend birthday greetings to JFK at Madison Square Garden: “Happy Birthday, Mr President.”)

Nothing fails like success; and when the studio system’s long decay accelerated in the Eighties, sharp-eyed hustlers observed that films unencumbered by infrastructure could be made for a fraction of the studio costs. Many of these independent producers came to film through expertise in other shakedowns and hustles: arms and drug dealing, money laundering, and racketeering.

Those hep to the jive saw the incredible waste of the studio film, the lack of oversight and the resultant possibility of fraud, both in production costs, and in accounting. Film, additionally, contained the Best Present Ever; artists manipulable through appeals to their ego, many of whom would, finally, either work for nothing, or accept a promise in lieu of a payment. It was (and is) standard practice, for example, for independent producers to come to the director just before shooting and confess that the budget is short, and that the director will have to waive his fee.

The Independents also employed the traditional sexual amuse-bouches to attract or please talent and investors. Being nekulturny thugs, however, they were not averse to resorting to the not-quite-sporting. The fellow they got laid could be in their debt not only for the nice workout, but for the tapes of his unlicensed encounter. 

Now, power.

Way back then, I was friendly with various politicians in an unnamed eastern city on Boston Harbour. I have never seen such a collection of devoted whoremasters. Show business may bring out the worst in people, but politics, it seemed, turned them into randy swine. “Gimme that one, and gimme that one…” was their entertainment’s name. They were enjoying not only young companionship, but the exercise of power and the thrill of its exemptions.

It’s easy to take older guys to the cleaners. In fact, we’ll take ourselves. As men age, sexual desire and performance decreases, they’re attracted by what’s forbidden. 

The short-eyes of the lustful, aged male are drawn to the women who looked-like-that when he was young; if they excite him, must he not, then, in some sense be “young” too? His fantasy is equal to that of the woman who devotes her mature years to cosmetics, surgery, and so on. They do not make her young, but assert that she is aware of the problem, is addressing it — and must that not be worth consideration? Ageing is a bitch.

How many do we know who firebombed a home, wife, and kids, to run off with the pilates instructor? Their act of male folly seems, to them, to be not the most but the sole important thing in the world. At that time.

“How many do we know who firebombed a home, wife, and kids, to run off with the pilates instructor?”

Sadder than the spectacle of the drooling old goat with the nymphet is the upcoming butcher’s bill: not only will they have nothing to talk about in the morning, but, should he wed, in 10 years he’ll be napping, she’ll be legitimately unfulfilled, and he’ll be old, divorced, and broke. 

Which is why there used to be whorehouses. 

Our age’s most brilliant proponent of these was Hugh Hefner. His Playboy clubs were the bourgeois’ dream of a bordello. They offered good food and drink, superb entertainment, and scantily clad and pleasant young women servers. Most attractively, to the middle-aged businessman clientele, they sold the promise of sex, which the customer (deep down) knew would remain unfulfilled — for which he was grateful. He could delude himself that one of the Bunnies was going home with him; indeed, they were schooled to create that illusion. When his quest failed, he could assure himself of his manhood in that he’d “tried”, and, most importantly, go home without adultery guilt.

Louis XV had his own private whorehouse, The Deer Park, staffed by underage girls recruited throughout the land by his pimps. Just as with Hollywood. It seems that Jeffrey Epstein knew French history, or anyway human nature, and flew his powerful friends down for a bit of surf and turf offering the irresistible: protected sin; just as Hefner sold the (unstated) protection of continence. 

Were Epstein’s guests aware of the possibility of blackmail? Perhaps they were, but the old Yiddish proverb has it, when the putz rises the brains bury themselves in mud. Men are stupid. Each, myself included, is foolish about this or that, and all are foolish about sex.

Epstein was shooting fish in a barrel — exploiting contacts who had relied upon him for cooze, and shaking down those who were more exploitable as victims than as debtors. 

Did he kill himself? If ever there was one begging to be offed it was he. If we assume the powerful whose lives Epstein could ruin by videotape would do anything on earth to retain their position short of killing him, we need to get out more.

Alternatively, perhaps Epstein could not face decades of (well-deserved) incarceration for sex trafficking. My cop friends inform me that he’d made several previous suicide attempts, and that conditions in the lockup were so wretched that the conjunction of various lapses in oversight was not only probable, but by-the-book laxity. Perhaps.

Will we ever know?

The Trump DOJ assures us that all the info on the Kennedy Assassinations, and on that of Martin Luther King will be forthcoming. They do not, however, define forthcoming, leaving us to supply our own definitions. This is called a “cliffhanger”. 

I love a mystery; you, dear reader, do too. 

We saw it during the Biden jollity. Those astounded by various government conspiracies were denounced as “conspiracy theorists”. But those conspiracies existed: the Russian collusion hoax; the fraudulent FISA warrants; the ginned-up impeachments, the placement of Candidate Trump on the Spot. They were no less conspiracies because those decrying them were dismissed as “theorists”.

All governments are potential conspiracies against the governed. Those in power may now oppose and now collude with warring groups for momentary leverage over the governed (us saps).

Our Constitution exists solely to address this human tropism. Might we, the governed hope for complete transparency from any government? Yes. Will we receive it? Likely not. Even if we did, our legitimate love of salacious gossip would induce us to discount any “final” revelation. If we accepted it, after all, wouldn’t we just have ruined a good mystery?

Epstein’s death — however caused — creates a well-deserved entertainment. All men are fools for sex, and our various inducements (legitimate and otherwise) and our transgressions have always existed simultaneously with our exploitability by both the badger game, and political and social shakedowns. 

Human nature is a bitch. Were it not, we’d be spending our evening reading Jane Austen rather than watching the news, for the thrill of decrying the sick savagery of both our political opponents and our neighbours. 

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Анекдот дня по итогам голосования за 24 июля 2025

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В Госдуме готовят закон о полном запрете. Скоро будет нельзя.
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Aeneas transforms how historians connect the past

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We’re publishing a paper in Nature introducing Aeneas, the first AI model for contextualizing ancient inscriptions.

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cherjr
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bogorad
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Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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denubis
2 days ago
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Ewan... we should poke at this.
euuan
1 day ago
They used the res gestae...

Ozempic Works Wonders Until You Stop. Then, the Weight Starts to Come Back

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  • Weight Rebound: On average, individuals regain 3.3 pounds within eight weeks of stopping weight-loss drugs like Ozempic.

  • Physiological Resistance: The body naturally resists weight loss by increasing hunger hormones, slowing metabolism, and attempting to return to a baseline weight.

  • Stubborn Biology: Even with lifestyle support, weight regain occurred, suggesting that biology plays a significant role in weight regulation.

  • Short-Term Fixes?: The drugs are effective while used, but their benefits diminish upon discontinuation, raising questions about long-term necessity.

  • Obesity Misunderstanding: Obesity is often viewed as a personal failure, but research indicates it is primarily a biological issue influenced by hormones and complex bodily feedback loops.


Eight weeks. That’s how long it takes, on average, for the pounds to begin creeping back after someone stops taking the world’s most promising weight-loss drugs.

Medications like semaglutide (Ozempic) and liraglutide have been hailed as “game-changers” in the fight against obesity, helping people shed 10, 15, even 20% of their body weight. But we don’t know as much about what happens when the prescription runs out. According to a new study published by researchers at Peking University People’s Hospital, there’s a big rebound effect.

In just a few years, weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy have become a global sensation. They promise to do something millions of people dream of: rapid, effortless weight loss without surgery or starvation. Backed by dramatic trial results and viral celebrity endorsements, they’ve become so popular that 1 in 8 adults in the US have already taken them at some point.

Yet, as so often happens with weight loss, shedding extra pounds is one thing — keeping them off is another.

The team, led by endocrinologist Xiaoling Cai, analyzed 11 randomized controlled trials, tracking more than 2,400 adults who had taken FDA- or EMA-approved anti-obesity drugs. Their question was simple: What happens after the medication stops?

The simple answer is that the weight gradually crept back, though not entirely. On average, participants regained 1.5 kilograms (about 3.3 pounds) within eight weeks of stopping treatment. At twelve weeks, it was 1.8 kilograms. By twenty weeks, 2.5 kilograms. That might not sound like much. But it reveals a consistent trend, a steady reversal of the drug’s effects.

The weight stabilized after six months. It settles at a plateau, higher than the low point reached with the medication, but lower than where people started. The rebound effect wasn’t full, but it was definitely there.

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The body is stubborn

For decades, researchers have known that the human body resists weight loss. When we lose fat, our levels of leptin (the hormone that signals fullness) fall. At the same time, ghrelin, the hunger hormone, rises. Our metabolism slows, our cravings grow more intense, and our bodies burn fewer calories even at rest. Recent studies have also shown that our cells have a “memory” and they try to push you back to a baseline weight.

In other words, our weight has more inertia than we thought. It’s a tug-of-war with physiology, and our physiology is stubborn.

GLP-1 drugs short-circuit some of those defenses. But once withdrawn, the body mounts a counterattack. It doesn’t forget where it started from and it tries, with impressive efficiency, to get back there. It’s important to keep in mind that it doesn’t revert quite to the baseline, but it doesn’t stay at the minimum weight either.

This study doesn’t say anti-obesity drugs don’t work. Quite the opposite: they work extremely well — while you’re on them.

But it does seem to show that these are short-term fixes. Like glasses for near-sightedness, their benefits vanish when you stop using them. For a chronic condition like obesity, that means we may need to think about these drugs as long-term treatments, perhaps lifelong ones. But this raises tough questions for doctors, patients, and policymakers. Should people stay on GLP-1 drugs indefinitely? Are they safe for long-term use? Who pays the bill, and what happens when access ends?

We keep misunderstanding obesity

The study also examined what happened when patients received lifestyle support like diet plans, exercise regimens, and coaching, either during or after drug therapy. Surprisingly, weight regain happened even when lifestyle interventions continued. That came as a surprise and runs counter to conventional wisdom.

It does show, however, that there’s much we still don’t understand about how our body deals with extra pounds. It also suggests we keep falling into the same obesity management traps.

Obesity is still too often framed as a personal failure. If you’re overweight, it’s your fault, a matter of weak will or bad choices. But studies like this underscore what obesity researchers have long argued: that weight regulation is mostly biological. It’s the result of complex feedback loops between the brain, gut, hormones, and fat tissue. Of course, all of this is overlaid on our modern lifestyle and often processed, unhealthy foods.

But the idea that people can simply ‘choose’ to be thin ignores how our bodies actually work. We’re not machines. We’re ecosystems, and ecosystems resist change.

The rebound problem doesn’t mean we’re stuck. Researchers are already testing combination therapies that pair GLP-1 drugs with other molecules to blunt hunger even more effectively. Perhaps, after a longer prescription period, the rebound effect would be slower.

This new generation of weight-loss drugs is promising. But they’re still just tools, not magic bullets. To make them work long-term, we may need to keep using them long-term.

The study “Trajectory of the body weight after drug discontinuation in the treatment of anti‑obesity medications” was published in the journal BMC Medicine. 10.1186/s12916-025-04200-0

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bogorad
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Две заметки на полях неспешной дискуссии Марата Гельмана, Ильи Кукулина, Александ...

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Две заметки на полях неспешной дискуссии Марата Гельмана, Ильи Кукулина, Александра Морозова, Александра Гаврилова и других о принципах и смежных вещах. Именно на полях, да и то не потому, что хочу поспорить с кем-то конкретным, а потому что давно об этом думаю.

Первая:

Я сейчас очень часто встречаю утверждение, что вместо того, чтобы определять отношение к людям по каким-то формальным признакам (в данном случае по признаку принадлежности к группам "хороших" или "плохих" русских, но это не важно), нужно, в формулировке Гельмана, "не лениться и разбирать каждый конкретный кейс".

В юности я сам был в этом уверен и часто об этом писал. Но близкое знакомство с наукой экономикой изменило моё мнение на этот счёт. Наши ресурсы ограничены и мы не может объять необъятное. У нас просто нет ни времени ни сил разбирать каждый конкретный кейс. С этим едва справляется вся государственная судебная система с её огромными бюджетами: даже там рассмотрение каждого дела часто тянется годами. Куда уж нам. Мы можем посвятить ограниченное время изучению редких отдельных знаковых кейсов, типа кейса Рымбу и Безносова, но даже и тут у нас нет реальной возможности погрузиться во все детали вопроса. Почти никто этого и не делает. Поэтому у нас три выхода:

- Отказаться от любого собственного и несобственного мнения, то есть по сути от рационального мышления (например, от использования индукции и дедукции) и от любых моральных оценок, то стать умственно ленивым моральным релятивистом.
- Довериться авторитетам
- Составлять мнение на основе применения общих логических и моральных принципов к имеющейся ограниченной информации.

Вторая:

Илья Кукулин предлагает использовать антиномическое мышление, то есть, если я его правильно понимаю, признавать, что может существовать не одна истина, а две или несколько равноправных и одинаково (не)доказуемых истин.

Но антиномическое мышление, в том смысле, в котором писал о нём Кант (надеюсь, мы тут не говорим о марксизме), применимо только к вопросам, которые мы в принципе не можем проверить эмпирически, например к вопросу о существовании Бога или бесконечности Вселенной. Если бы Канту сказали, что моральные суждения должны быть антимоническими, он бы подавился супом.

Есть ещё, конечно, “антиномические” парадоксы, вроде парадокса лжеца. О них сломано много копий, но я твёрдо придерживаюсь мнения, что это просто семантический трюк. Высказывание “Это высказывание ложно” не имеет смысла, потому что в нём нет собственно высказывания: слово “это” указывает не на высказывание вида “Если A, то B” или "Все X являются Y", которое может иметь значения “истинно” или “ложно”, а просто сразу на значение этого несуществующего — поскольку ни A, ни B, ни X, ни Y, ни “если”, ни “то”, ни "все", ни "являются" там нет — высказывания. Это не логическая конструкция, а уроборос, кусающий себя за хвост.

В приложении к реальным высказываниям, справедливость которых можно эмпирически проверить, антиномическое мышление — не полезный инструмент, а просто замаскированный отказ от собственного мнения: “Вы правы, и вы тоже правы, только, пожалуйста, отъебитесь”. Иметь собственное мнение нужно не в каждый момент, suspension of judgement, то есть отложенное суждение, ― очень полезная вещь, но это не отказ от суждения и не согласие с тем, что истин много, а именно суждение отложенное в условиях недостаточной информации, до момента, когда её станет достаточно.

Мы, конечно, никогда не будем иметь её всю, но это не освобождает нас от необходимости иметь своё мнение хотя бы по самым важным вопросам.

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Когда вышла "В Питере жить", я не знала куда деваться, потому что народ чуть что - пр...

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Когда вышла "В Питере жить", я не знала куда деваться, потому что народ чуть что - протягивал книжку для автографа. И тут начиналась драма, потому что я не знала, что накорябать. В результате, конечно, писала ахинею. А потом нашла у Чуковского, как подписывал книжки Блок, и меня попустило. Точнее, Корней Иванычу рассказал Маяковский, который ходил за автографом на Офицерскую. Засиживаться не собирался - дома ждала Лиля, которая, собственно, и велела добыть у автора стихов о Прекрасной Даме подписанные книги. Но черт бы с ней - дома ждали горячие блины. По дороге Маяковский деловито прикинул - минут десять на разговор, десять на просьбу, и три собственно на изготовление автографов.
Все шло прекрасно. Наконец Блок взял перо, сел за стол и задумался. Прошло пять минут. Десять. Двадцать. Маяковский, представив, что скажет Лиличка, если он опоздает и блины остынут, внутренне заметался. А потом и внешне. На часы было страшно смотреть. Блок думал. "Да пишите, что первое в голову придет", - пролепетал несчастный гость. Блок думал. Наконец закончил и вручил долгожданные томики.
Несясь прыжками вниз по лестнице, Маяковский второпях приоткрыл книгу и прочел: "Владимиру Маяковскому, о котором в последнее время я так много думаю".

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cherjr
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